The aim of this module is to:
By the end of this module, you’ll understand a range of potential scenarios that may impact your work in the future.
In this activity, you’ll think about 4 scenario types to develop alternative future scenarios.
You may decide to develop:
We’ve adapted this activity from the work of Jim Dator, Professor of Future Studies.
In this scenario, you look at a future where your organisation has a period of growth, such as increased demand for your services or products.
This is the most common scenario people expect for their organisation.
Organisations often develop strategies with this assumption in mind.
People usually feel optimistic in a growth scenario.
In this scenario, you look at a future where your organisation is transformed in a big way. This could be the way you work or that the work you do changes significantly.
Your transformation may be caused by:
People may feel surprised in this scenario.
In this scenario, you look at a future where your organisation’s work is limited or constrained in some way.
This could be due to financial constraints, a shortage of skilled employees or a change in legislation limiting how or where your business can operate.
Some people may feel challenged in this scenario, but others may see opportunities for innovation and efficiency.
In this scenario, you look at a future where your organisation is unable to deliver on its work and your work offering may be quite different.
Examples of this might be a product or service that is discontinued or outsourced.
People may be feeling concerned or distressed in this scenario.
To do this activity, you’ll need the:
Alternative futures - defining scenarios template (PowerPoint, 1.1MB)
Alternative futures - consolidating scenarios template (PowerPoint, 1.1MB)
Use the scenario development of:
Alternative futures - defining scenarios template (PowerPoint, 1.1MB)
Select a trend from your STEEP analysis completed in module 2
Think about which future or futures this may happen in using the 4 scenario types of growth, transformation, constraints and collapse.
Add some of the other trends to the situation to build on your scenario.
Consider what this scenario would look like and bring the scenario to life by considering questions like:
Discuss and note down the changes to the way you work or deliver your service or products
Develop a name or a headline that describes your scenario.
Use the:
Alternative futures - consolidating scenarios template (PowerPoint, 1.1MB)
Develop your scenarios more by asking:
How to run this module as a workshop
If you are running this module as a workshop, you’ll need:
Module 3 workshop slides, facilitator guide and speaking notes (PowerPoint, 1.2MB)
If you run this as a workshop:
Run workshop: 2 hours
Develop scenarios further in small groups: 1 hour
Total: 3 hours